Americans Understand that Impeachment is Unlikely to Happen

The first impeachment came in July of 2017, six months after Trump was first sworn into office. Since Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate, the odds of impeachment were very low. When the Democrats took control over Congress in 2019, the House passed two impeachment efforts, but neither won the two-thirds Senate majority required for conviction and removal.

The two impeachment resolutions had strong legal backing (see here and here), but many of the impeachment resolutions were merely messaging bills — attempts to appease a base of Democratic voters who did not like Trump. In Trump’s second term, despite being in the minority in both chambers, Democrats have tried to impeach Trump several times as well. Some Democrats believe that it will be a useful midterm message, while others don’t believe it will be an effective political message. 

In a recent poll, we wanted to explore if voters understood what impeachment really was, and what the process would be like. This has implications for elected officials who may be trying to weigh the benefits of symbolic anti-Trump activism against the costs of pursuing a deeply unlikely outcome. 

Voters generally believe that impeachment is synonymous with removal from office, with 48% saying this best describes what impeachment is, but a large minority (23%) understands that the process is a charge of misconduct. 

At the same time, 39% correctly identify that Democrats would need a House majority and a 2/3rds Senate majority to remove Trump from office. Slightly more Democrats are able to identify this correctly, 47%, with Republicans saying they aren’t sure or that there’s no way for Democrats to remove the president. This is likely ideologically motivated opting out of the question, rather than true confusion about the process.

Voters are surprisingly clear eyed about the actual likelihood that Trump is removed. Democrats are, of course, more optimistic about the chances, but only 33% are willing to say it’s somewhat or very likely to happen. Of the same Democratic respondents, 90% said they’d support Trump’s removal from office. 

These results provide useful context for the voter pressure for Democrats to pursue impeachment. Voters aren’t theorizing that the action will work, they’re instead looking for any measure for the out of power Democratic party to put pressure on the president. 

Methodology

The Searchlight Institute and Tavern Research conducted an online survey of 1,507 likely 2026 voters from May 28 – 29, 2026. The results were weighted by gender, race, education, age, and 2024 presidential vote choice. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.7% and is higher for subgroups.